Artificial intelligence and computing power hold the key to higher levels of automation and fundamentally shape the future of mobility. In the next few years, we should see proliferation of CASE technologies, and the introduction of new services and business models.
The automotive industry is accelerating, pouring in billions of dollars into research, innovation and product development to reshape cars from a product to a real-time connected digital experience platform. The single biggest driver for this change is the connectedness of the car and the intelligence embedded into it.
The concept of CASE — Connected, Autonomous, Shared and Electric — is gathering momentum, where cars become a part of an ecosystem of mobility services that offer seamless, safe, cost-effective and time-efficient transport.
In 2019, at the 11th Automotive World Conference, Keiji Yamamoto, Operating Officer and President of Toyota Motor Corporation’s Connected Company, presented a seminar, Envisioning Smart Mobility Society in the Connected Future, where he elaborated on the revolutionary changes spurred by the three pillars of electrification, autonomous, and connectivity, and how Toyota is using these technologies to create a new mobility society.
Even Daimler predicts that with CASE, a true revolution is afoot. The company adds on its website: “For many years, Daimler has been investing in mobility, which goes beyond the actual vehicle. In the future, we will continue to expand this commitment. Therefore, we look forward to innovative companies and start-ups willing to work with us.”
Mercedes-Benz is convinced that the future is CASE. “With our products and services, we play a key role in shaping the mobility of tomorrow. Our vehicles and mobility solutions show the course we already have set for tomorrow and you can be sure, there is a lot more to come,” Sajjad Khan, member of the board of management of Mercedes-Benz AG and responsible for CASE, said in a press statement.
Stronger environmental regulations around the world are pushing manufacturers to lower vehicle emissions. Volkswagen plans to sell three million electric vehicles (EV) in 2025. Meanwhile, Sweden-based Volvo committed to a fully electric product lineup in 2019.
The number of electric cars, vans, trucks and buses on the world’s roads is on course to increase from 11 million vehicles to 145 million by the end of the decade, which could wipe out demand for millions of barrels of oil every day.
A report by the International Energy Agency has found that there could be 230 million EV worldwide by 2030 if governments agreed to encourage the production of enough low-carbon vehicles to stay within global climate targets.
Despite the economic slowdown, which caused the global car industry to shrink by 16 per cent last year, a record 3 million new electric cars were registered around the world last year, to bring the total to 10 million electric cars.
Along with the shift to EV, self-driving technologies are advancing, led by Tesla. With expertise in data analysis, technology companies like Google are leading their development, along with semiconductor makers such as Nvidia.
And fully autonomous driving requires connected-car technologies, which help identify the precise location of vehicles and enhance the convenience of riders using the internet. General Motors, for example, envisions offering restaurant recommendations using IBM’s Watson when riders are in an unfamiliar area.
Meanwhile, ride sharing is rising, which can improve traffic, save money, and help the environment. A study by MIT shows carpooling apps, such as Uber, Ola, Didi Chuxing and Grab, could reduce congestion by a factor of three while still serving the same number of people. As people move from car ownership to shared vehicles, Deloitte Tohmatsu Consulting projects the number of owned cars may be cut by half around 2030.
According to Experiences Per Mile 2030 report, published by the Experiences Per Mile Advisory Council, a collaboration among an exclusive group of automotive executives, analysts, and industry insiders regarding the changing value chains in automotive being driven by the connected movement:
By 2030, 96 per cent of new vehicles shipped globally with built-in connectivity (2 times increase since 2020)
By 2030, 79 per cent of new vehicles shipped globally with Level-2 autonomy or higher (vs 45 per cent in 2020)
By 2030, 26 per cent of mobility profits derived from new sources – e.g. on-demand mobility (vs 1 per cent in 2020)
By 2030, 24 per cent of new cars sold that are electric vehicles EVs (vs 3 per cent in 2020)
This transformation is fuelled by the growing quantity and availability of vehicle and mobility data to automakers, mobility providers and tier-one suppliers and system integrators, tech and IT giants, local and national governments, and broader ecosystem of key players.
Based on estimates, all the vehicles on the road today generate in excess of 30,000 petabytes per day (to put that in context, the entire written works of mankind, from the beginning of recorded history, account for 50 petabytes).
Only a fraction of this data ever makes it out of the car, but when it does, it can act as a powerful enabler of innovative new solutions and experiences. The CASE thrives on an abundance of data – from the vehicle, from the customer, and from the mobility environment. This abundance of data presents a huge opportunity for OEMs to design an intelligent, self-learning and self-optimising ecosystem that offers mobility users a highly personalised experience.
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Here’s how the CASE concept is building up:
Connected
Increasingly, cars come with a tamper-proof digital identity that differentiates them from other vehicles in the network. This enables easy tracking of vehicular data for various use cases such as insurance, driver safety, predictive maintenance, and fleet management. Sharing vehicular data helps not just the individual customer, but overhauls the entire mobility ecosystem.
Also, there’s technology such as remote start and locking/unlocking features, vehicle monitoring through phones and notifications, intuitive cabin technology integration, including infotainment, and artificial intelligence (AI) governance based on those of Apple’s Siri and Amazon’s Alexa. For example, the Mercedes-Benz User Experience A-Class supports the driver by means of intelligent voice control with natural speech recognition, a navigation system with augmented reality technology, and in particular, the system’s learning capability, which is based on AI.
Meanwhile, Israeli startup NoTraffic has developed an AI-powered traffic signal platform that digitises road infrastructure management and connects drivers to the city roadways to manage various traffic-related challenges. The data of all road users is streamed and processed in real-time to empower smart mobility.
Autonomous
Self-driving cars are still a long way off. The recent crash of a Tesla car in the US, in which two people died, has reignited debate about the capabilities and safety of today’s “self-driving” technologies. Nevertheless, many features have improved through autonomous technology. Currently, this has manifested in adaptive safety technology, such as active distance assist, active blind spot assist, active lane keep assist and autonomous emergency braking. Due to remarkable developments in Advanced Driving Aid Systems (ADAS), the entire range of human driver activity is undergoing change. In extreme scenarios, this could extend to the system assuming control without the consent of the driver. Thus, from a driving task which was once the total responsibility of the human driver in terms of road environment perception, decision-making and sensorimotor control, we are now heading towards a co-managed driving task under the joint authority of a complex entity: the Human-Machine System. Future mobility concepts such as the Vision URBANETIC will give rise to a fundamental change of perspective and put the focus on how to accomplish the journey as comfortably, economically, and quickly as possible using any transport.
Shared and services
With connected vehicles, new business models have come up that focus on shared mobility as an alternative to traditional vehicle ownership. This enables mobility-as-a-service (MaaS) and discourages unused vehicles. Such solutions reduce waiting time for fleets and pollution caused by petrol or diesel vehicles. Also, a growing number of consumers are seeking convenient access to mobility to get “from A to B” while viewing vehicle ownership as a burden rather than a benefit. Typical forms of this trend include car-sharing, ride-sharing, ride-hailing, micro-mobility, and micro-transit. Mobile computing enables much of the convenience that shared mobility offers, such as instant access, competitive and convenient payments, and flexible work opportunities. Therefore, electronics, connectivity, and computing all play an important role in this trend.
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Electric
This is mostly concerned with building a new and improved platform for hybrids and electric vehicles (EVs). Traditional mechanical and fossil-fuel-powered vehicle driveline components are increasingly being replaced by electrical components. The spectrum includes hybrid electric vehicles, plug-in HEV, battery-based electric vehicles (EV), and hydrogen fuel-cell vehicles. The transition from traditional to electrified driveline technology requires more and more diverse electronics, such as more control systems, sensors and high-voltage systems. Ultimately though, the transition requires fewer systems, ignition, injection and multiple other systems being replaced by high-voltage power electronics and battery monitoring.
Interestingly, each one of these fields offers a wealth of opportunities and solutions that could significantly change our everyday life. But their true potential is in their combination.
While the ultimate aim for CASE will remain a connected autonomous shared and electric mobility service, we are just not there yet. More near-term targets will include electric vehicles with connected applications improving battery range of the vehicles. Nevertheless, over the next five years, we should see a gradual proliferation of each of the CASE technologies, and the introduction of new services and business models.
